Causes of Corn Yield Per Acre Variations
An analysis of state corn yield per acre history data provided by the USDA NASS indicates there are two causes of corn yield in bushel per acre variations at the regional level in the United States. These variations impact US state corn production. Both are important to creating an accurate corn yield forecast. The causes of year-to-year crop corn and soybean yield variations at the state and national level are:
- The Technology Trend – many types of technology are improving yields for both soybeans and corn. The result is an increase in how much crop per acre of corn can be produced on a piece of farmland. The charts below show corn and soybean yields from 1986 to 2017 as reported by the USDA. The general upward slope of the line is the technology trend.
- Weather conditions during the corn growing season – after removing the effect of the technology trend, the impact of weather on corn and soybeans can be estimated. The variations around the upward trend in the data on these charts are caused by weather conditions during the US growing season. CropProphet uses the evolving weather conditions during each crop season to forecast the end of season yields and production.
State Historical Corn Yield Per Acre Data
Historical Soybean Yield Per Acre Data
CropProphet is an “ag weather” based corn and soybean yield/production forecasting system. It forecasts the end of season USDA corn and soybean estimates. For example, starting in May and finishing in November, CropProphet forecasts the US national average corn yield. The USDA releases their yield estimates (and production estimates) in January following each crop season. We forecast the weather variations in the graphs above.