CropProphet Argentina Soybean Yield Forecast

CropProphet is pleased to announce the release of Argentina soybean yield forecasts starting in December 2020.  We are also releasing Argentina corn yield forecasts.  The forecasts are created using a similar weather-based yield forecasting technology that we use for our US yield forecasts.  Argentina is the third-largest producer of soybeans in the world.  The impact of weather on Argentina grain production impacts global grain trading markets because of its impact on global grain supply.  In addition, a La Niña event is developing, which directly impacts Argentinian crops. CropProphet’s soybean yield forecast enables grain traders to create opportunities and manage risks that may arise from not having a full view of global grain supplies.

CropProphet quantifies the impact of weather on crops by combining historical weather data with crop yield and production data and apply machine learning techniques.  The result of the machine learning is a skillful model to predict Argentinian soybean yield based on evolving weather conditions during the crop season.

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During demonstrations of CropProphet for prospective customers, we are often asked “how did the model perform last year?” The maps below show the 2019 CropProphet Argentina yield forecast and the final estimate released by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries.  The CropProphet forecast of the final Argentina soybean yield was only 50 kg/ha different than the official final estimate suggesting the model is quite skillful.

Argentina Soybean Yield Forecast: 2019

Argentina Soybean Yield Forecast for 2019 and the final estimate.

Soybean Yield Forecast Evolution

The monthly evolution of the forecast shows how the forecast evolved during the crop season.

A summary of the information provided by the CropProphet Argentina soybean yield forecast system is provided below.

Summary Information: Argentina Soybean Yield Forecasts

Crops and Regions Covered

Daily-updated yield forecasts are provided for

  • soybeans and
  • corn.

The forecasts provided are at the departmental level (the small geographical regions below) but are also calculated for the provincial and national geographic level. The national soybean production map below highlights the regions of Argentina that produce the most Soybeans.

Argentina Soybean Production Map

Argentina Soybean Production Map

Forecast Dates

The forecasts run from early December 2020 to June of 2021.

Historical Training Period

The model was trained using historical Argentina departmental estimated crop yields and departmental weather information from 1981 to 2000.

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Accuracy: Argentina Soybean Crop Yield Forecast

Our cross-validated, machine learning statistical modeling methodology enables evaluation of the accuracy of the CropProphet model.  As shown in the graphic below, for Argentina’s national soybean yield forecasts, CropProphet achieves a mean absolute error of 139.5 kg/ha.   Compared this to the total 2019 final estimate of approximately 3250 kg/ha, this is an error of about 4.3%, on average.

Argentina Soybean Yield Forecast Accuracy

Argentina Soybean Yield Forecast Accuracy

We find the soybean yield forecast accuracy achieved quite compelling.  For the understanding and forecasting US crop production, the USDA NASS provides data helpful for crop yield forecasting.  This includes, for example, a long history of weekly crop condition reports.  This data is not available from the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries.

Argentina Soybean Weather Forecast

The CropProphet Argentina soybean yield forecast is a weather-driven model.  As a result, we process a wide variety of weather and climate information required to create the soybean yield forecast.  This information includes weather forecast information from NOAA’s global ensemble forecast system and the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting ensemble model.   Grain markets respond to daily changes in the weather forecast. Having access to the primary weather forecast tools is critical for trading success.

The weather observation and forecast information are available in CropProphet to help your monitoring of the weather conditions important to South American crop development.

Example Precipitation Forecast

Argentina Soybean Weather Forecast: Precipitation

Argentina Soybean Weather Forecast: Precipitation

   Example 90-day Observed Precipitation Analysis

Estimating the impact of weather events on crops can be difficult.   We simplify the process by calculating production weighted weather variables such as

  • precipitation,
  • maximum temperature,
  • minimum temperature,
  • growing degree days,
  • soil moisture,
  • relative humidity
  • solar radiation.
Argentina 90-day Observed Precipitation Analysis

Argentina 90-day Observed Precipitation Analysis

 

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