CropProphet Argentina Soybean Yield Forecast
CropProphet is pleased to announce the release of Argentina soybean yield forecasts starting in December 2020. We are also releasing Argentina corn yield forecasts. The forecasts are created using a similar weather-based yield forecasting technology that we use for our US yield forecasts. Argentina is the third-largest producer of soybeans in the world. The impact of weather on Argentina grain production impacts global grain trading markets because of its impact on global grain supply. In addition, a La Niña event is developing, which directly impacts Argentinian crops. CropProphet’s soybean yield forecast enables grain traders to create opportunities and manage risks that may arise from not having a full view of global grain supplies.
CropProphet quantifies the impact of weather on crops by combining historical weather data with crop yield and production data and apply machine learning techniques. The result of the machine learning is a skillful model to predict Argentinian soybean yield based on evolving weather conditions during the crop season.
Soybean Yield Forecast Evolution
The monthly evolution of the forecast shows how the forecast evolved during the crop season.
A summary of the information provided by the CropProphet Argentina soybean yield forecast system is provided below.
Summary Information: Argentina Soybean Yield Forecasts
Crops and Regions Covered
Daily-updated yield forecasts are provided for
- soybeans and
The forecasts provided are at the departmental level (the small geographical regions below) but are also calculated for the provincial and national geographic level. The national soybean production map below highlights the regions of Argentina that produce the most Soybeans.
The forecasts run from early December 2020 to June of 2021.
Historical Training Period
The model was trained using historical Argentina departmental estimated crop yields and departmental weather information from 1981 to 2000.
Accuracy: Argentina Soybean Crop Yield Forecast
Our cross-validated, machine learning statistical modeling methodology enables evaluation of the accuracy of the CropProphet model. As shown in the graphic below, for Argentina’s national soybean yield forecasts, CropProphet achieves a mean absolute error of 139.5 kg/ha. Compared this to the total 2019 final estimate of approximately 3250 kg/ha, this is an error of about 4.3%, on average.
We find the soybean yield forecast accuracy achieved quite compelling. For the understanding and forecasting US crop production, the USDA NASS provides data helpful for crop yield forecasting. This includes, for example, a long history of weekly crop condition reports. This data is not available from the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries.
Argentina Soybean Weather Forecast
The CropProphet Argentina soybean yield forecast is a weather-driven model. As a result, we process a wide variety of weather and climate information required to create the soybean yield forecast. This information includes weather forecast information from NOAA’s global ensemble forecast system and the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting ensemble model. Grain markets respond to daily changes in the weather forecast. Having access to the primary weather forecast tools is critical for trading success.
The weather observation and forecast information are available in CropProphet to help your monitoring of the weather conditions important to South American crop development.
Example Precipitation Forecast
Example 90-day Observed Precipitation Analysis
Estimating the impact of weather events on crops can be difficult. We simplify the process by calculating production weighted weather variables such as
- maximum temperature,
- minimum temperature,
- growing degree days,
- soil moisture,
- relative humidity
- solar radiation.
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