Midwest Heat Wave Forecast Update

We recently posted information about the probability of a Midwestern US Heat Wave in July 2020 from our related product, the World Climate Service. Since the ECMWF “extended forecast” was released yesterday, this post updates the forecast as of July 7th, 2020.

On June 29, 2020, we wrote a post that included this temperature probability map showing increased chances of above-normal temperature in the Midwestern US for the week of July 13 to the 19th.

One week later we can look at the two week forecast for the same time period. The forecast shown below is for the same time period in mid-July, 2020 but is now a two-week forecast. It shows increased probabilities of warmer than normal temperatures.

Midwest Heat Wave - Mid July 2020
Midwest Heat Wave – Mid July 2020

We can also look at the precipitation forecast probabilities for the same week of July 13 to July 19, 2020. It shows increased probabilities of below-normal precipitation.

Midwest Heat Wave - Precipitation forecast
Midwest Heat Wave – Precipitation forecast

Just as we reviewed the three-week forecast in the prior forecast, we can do so again this week. The forecast, shown below, continues to show increased probabilities of above-normal temperatures. The forecasted Midwest heat wave will likely continue into late July, 2020.

Midwest Heat Wave - Week 3 Forecast
Midwest Heat Wave – Week 3 Forecast

A forecast progression shows the evolution of the forecast over time for the same time period. The forecast progression below shows a trend of increasing probabilities of above-normal temperature the five-week, four-week, and three-week forecasts. This likely supports the continuation of a Midwest heat wave into late July.

Midwest Heat Wave - Forecast Progression
Midwest Heat Wave – Forecast Progression

CropProphet quantifies the impact of weather on grains. The product uses forecasts from the first two weeks each day to estimate the impact on corn and soybean yields and production. The World Climate Service (WCS) forecasts shown above are not specifically included. WCS is designed to provide long-range forecasts, which can still be useful in grain trading.

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