Soybeans Jan Dutton 03/15/2020

Top States US Soybean Production History

The information below is provided by the USDA NASS and documents the soybean production history of the major soybean-producing states in the United States. CropProphet, a soybean production forecasting product, is designed to forecast the year to year variations of soybean production during the crop season.

An analysis of state soybean production history data indicates there are three causes of soybean production variations at the regional level in the United States. Each is important to creating an accurate soybean-production forecast. The causes of year-to-year soybean production variation at the state and national level are:

The number of acres of soybeans planted in any year. Production is the number of acres harvested multiplied by the yield of those acres. The number of acres planted varies in each year.
The Soybean Yield Technology Trend – many types of technology are improving yields for soybeans. The result is an increase in how much crop can be produced on a given piece of farm-land. The charts below show soybean yields from 1986 to 2017 as reported by the USDA. The general upward slope of the line is the technology trend.
Weather conditions during the soybean growing season – after removing the effect of the technology trend, the impact of weather on soybeans can be estimated. The variations around the upward trend in the data on these charts are caused by weather conditions during the US growing season. CropProphet uses the evolving weather conditions during each soybean growing season to forecast end-of-season soybean production.