The CropProphet forecasts for U.S. soybean yield and production dropped on June 12 in response to the first USDA soybean condition report, which was slightly worse than normal for the time of year. Based on the USDA report alone, the most likely U.S. yield would be slightly below trend at about 46 bushels per acre, but CropProphet’s weather and satellite data point to a slightly better outcome. According to the optimally weighted consensus of all CropProphet predictors, the most likely U.S. yield and production are 46.8 bushels per acre and 4.14 billion bushels; these forecasts are about 2.5% below the current USDA estimates (see figures below).

Except for the impact of the crop condition report, the CropProphet soybean forecasts have been remarkably stable in recent weeks. The county-level forecasts have shown mixed trends, with areas of improvement in the lower Mississippi River valley, northern Indiana, and the Upper Midwest, and with some deterioration in Nebraska, South Dakota, southern Illinois, and Ohio (see figure below). Above-normal temperatures have aided development in the northern tier of states, but dryness is having a negative impact in the Plains. More significant changes in the soybean outlook will likely occur in July and August, when soybeans will become much more sensitive to prevailing weather conditions.

The next update to the soybeans commentary will occur on July 5.