Weather Data Creates a Superior Corn Forecast System
The One Minute Summary
- Many providers of crop intelligence focus on analyzing only satellite information or only weather information to estimate crop health and related information to forecast yields and production. CropProphet focuses on weather and health information during the crop season but does not forget about satellite information to enable a daily updating crop yield and production forecasts.
- Users of CropProphet can have access to a web-based version of the US crop production and yield intelligence and forecasts provided by CropProphet, a product of Prescient Weather. Users can also have access to digital forms of the data that drive CropProphet as well as the content created by the system via FTP.
Weather Focused Yield/Production Forecasts
You can rely on the CropProphet Crop Yield and Production forecasting system because the best possible data is combined on a daily basis to predict the end of season USDA Crop Production and Yield forecasts for Corn, Soybeans, and Winter Wheat.
Estimates of the national yield or production for corn, soybean, and winter wheat can impact the price in the market. As a result, CropProphet focuses on provided the best accuracy possible for national yield and production. The results from 2017 and 2018 are provided below. Additional information about the past performance of our forecasts are available.
Although we focused on forecasting the national yields and production, the process begins with county-level forecasts. As a result, CropProphet provides you with maps, such as the one below, that depict the corn yield forecast at the county level.
You can even zoom to the county level.
CropProphet is unique because while many services analyze satellite information to understand the health of the crop to forecast yield, we focus primarily but not exclusively on analyzing daily updated high-resolution weather information. Our forecasts update daily as a result.
The source of satellite information we use is the normalized difference vegetation index or NDVI. An example of the July 2018 NDVI data is shown below.
NDVI essentially measures changes in the color of the crops over the course of the growing season. One reason we don't focus significantly on NDVI based information to predict yields is because NDVI is a lagging indicator of the impact of weather on crops. The weather causes the crops the change colors compared to a normal season with a lag of up to a few weeks. By modeling weather directly, we capture important weather signals earlier than satellite-based systems.
Another important source of information is, of course, weather. An example map from the CropProphet system is shown below.
CropProphet is a complex statistical forecasting system that has found the relationship between crop season weather and crop yields over as much as 40 years of data. The CropProphet system uses inputs from many sources of information to forecast expected corn, soybean, and winter wheat yields.
CropProphet is unique because it focuses on using weather inputs to create a superior US Crop Production Forecast System.