Our US Crop Production Forecasts Are Accurate
The 1 Minute Summary
- The CropProphet crop production forecast and crop yield forecast system provides transparent access to forecast accuracy and performance.
- Crop forecasts can be evaluated at the national, state, and county level.
- The correlation of national level crop forecasts are very high (i.e. just below correlations of 1.0)
What is CropProphet? - A US corn yield forecast system
CropProphet is a corn, soybean, and winter wheat production and yield forecasting system. It predicts crop growth from the USDA NASS county level crop production and yield reports for each growing season. This is done because we have conducted an extensive statistical analysis of
- The impact of technology to create yield trend - if the weather is held constant yields next year will be higher than this year
- The impact of daily weather conditions on crop yields and production. Weather is the primary reason there is year to year changes in yields. Our model has analyzed this impact and uses the daily updating weather and weather forecasts to quantify the impact of weather on yield.
2018 Crop Yield and Production Performance
CropProphet performed well forecasting the 2018 USDA NASS Corn and Soybean yield and production, as shown below.
It's important that CropProphet users have confidence in the yield and production forecasts they are using to make critical, money-making decisions. As a result, we strive to transparently provide information in the product about CropProphet's accuracy.
CropProphet Crop Production Forecast Accuracy
We are confident CropProphet is the most accurate daily updating national level crop production and yield forecast system available. As the developer of CropProphet, Prescient Weather prides itself on being transparent regarding the accuracy of its products. A section of CropProphet (see below) is dedicated to the historical performance of our forecasts, allowing users to gain confidence in the accuracy of the system.
The chart below compares CropProphet's September 1st US corn yield forecasts to the USDA's mid-September estimates and the final USDA numbers. As can be seen, our forecasts closely track the final outcome. Our forecasts just happen to be released two weeks earlier than the USDA. The correlation between the CropProphet corn yield forecasts and the end of season USDA esimate is 0.98.
Crop Yield and Production Forecast Transparency
CropProhet provides transparent access to accuracy statistics. For example, the map below depicts county-by-county crop yield correlations of our forecasts since 1986.
State Crop Forecast Accuracy? - Included
Is corn, soybean, or winter wheat forecast accuracy important to you? CropProphet includes that information as well. The map to the left is a snippet showing the correlation of Illinois soybean production forecasts.
Crop Production Forecast Accuracy at County Resolution - We have that too!
CropProphet is created based on a "bottom-up" forecast process, which allows not only national level crop forecasts but also state level analysis.
Iowa corn production is a very important indicator of the national crop outcome, but every state is affected by the weather. The map image below shows the correlation of corn yield forecasts at the county level for Iowa. In fact, CropProphet allows users to view crop yield and production data for each state that grows corn, soybeans, and winter wheat.
The advantages of crop forecast accuracy
The graph below demonstrates the daily progress of the 2017 CropProphet national corn yield forecast. It contains so much information that we cover it in greater detail in our "Back Test Your Ideas" discussion.
Request a trial today, and explore the accuracy of CropProphet.