Agriculture Weather (i.e. agwx) information is widely available from a wide range of sources on the web. But most of that information is not specifically tailored to assist in critical decision making regarding important business factors like we do to create a corn yield forecast product. This post provides a simple example where CropProphet agriculture weather analysis adds value to understanding the potential impact of weather on the Brazilian 1st season corn crop. While this specific example is for Brazil corn weather conditions its applicable for Brazil Soybean weather conditions as well.
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We recently came across the weather graphic below on social media. Unfortunately, we do not know the original source of data to allow us to provide an acknowledgment. A comment provided along with the image was along the lines of “Many parts of Brazil have been dry lately, but Rio Grande do Sul is not one of them.” Indeed the maps show 10+ inches of precipitation over the prior 30 days is likely significant rainfall total. However, there is no context to this information. Is 12.55 inches of rain is less than normal for this time of year?
We took a look at the equivalent information in CropProphet (shown below). This graphic shows that the southern 2/3 of the state has indeed received as much as 200 to 250% of normal precipitation for the 30 days ending 29 October. The information is presented relative to what is “normal” facilitating an assessment of the likely impact of that information. We also see, however, that the northern strip of sub-regions has actually been drier than normal.
Is this precipitation pattern of greater than normal precipitation impactful to the Rio Grande do Sul corn crop during planting? We have added a tool that makes maps of the dominant regions of Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean planting maps quickly and readily available. The analysis shows that corn production in Rio Grande do Sol is generally concentrated across the northern tier of the state. In fact, the sub-region with the greatest first season corn production (relative to total Brazilian national 1st season corn production) is Frederico Westphalen and Vacaria. Both of these regions indicate below normal precipitation. In fact, precipitation in Frederico Westphalen is only 64% of normal (information available in the CropProphet product). Compare the precipitation anomaly map above with the regions that grow the most corn?
So, it is meteorologically significant that large portions of Rio Grande do Sol received generally greater than normal precipitation in October 2019. However, you might come to different conclusions about the impact of October precipitation in the province based on the more nuanced and refined view provided by CropProphet.